A predictive secular kill-switch model for when your portfolio risk posture must change
Recession/Watch gives you an insurance policy type of trigger for your investment portfolio, thanks to a highly focused quant model centered on one core job: monitoring US recession-sensitive deterioration and translating it into a clean, portfolio-facing regime
Recession/Watch is a controlled macro workspace for self-directed investors who want a rules-based framework for identifying when long-term economic stress is becoming actionable for asset allocation, risk posture, and capital preservation (ie. going to cash)
Inside the Recession/Watch Model
A focused preview of the long-horizon macro model subscribers see inside the dedicated web portal.
US Recession Kill Switch Model
Aggregated long-term recession-sensitive model families presented through one portfolio-facing regime.
Model interpretation
Recession/Watch is designed to show when deterioration stops being theoretical and starts becoming relevant to portfolio construction.
What subscribers see
Subscriber access
A focused web based macro workspace with regime interpretation, model views, and selected component tabs.
How the Framework Works
Recession/Watch exists to do one job well: monitor, aggregate, and switch.
1. Monitor
The model tracks recession-sensitive drivers such as yield deterioration, labor softening, consumer weakness, and broader macro stress.
2. Aggregate
Those inputs are combined into a single long-horizon score so investors are not forced to interpret a dozen competing macro narratives.
3. Switch
When the score crosses defined thresholds, portfolio posture should change. That transition is the recession kill switch.
Portfolio Playbook by Regime
The model translates into a usable posture framework (ie. invested vs. cash), not just macro commentary.
LOW
LOW- Maintain baseline diversified exposure.
- Stay systematic and avoid reacting to short-term noise.
- Operate under normal long-term assumptions.
MODERATE
MODERATE- Reduce weaker cyclical exposure and raise quality.
- Tighten discipline around concentration and beta.
- Prepare defensive adjustments early.
HIGH
HIGH- Prioritize capital preservation.
- Cut leverage, reduce beta, and improve liquidity buffers.
- Use defensive allocation and hedges as the primary lens.
Connected to Hedgtrade
Recession/Watch is the macro regime layer inside a broader story. Hedgtrade is the wider quant operating platform, strategy environment, and research architecture behind it.
Who It Is For
The product is aimed at self-directed investors, long-term allocators, and macro-aware portfolio builders who want a cleaner regime lens for risk posture and capital preservation.
Subscribers get access to a web-based focused macro workspace.
Recession/Watch is the public-facing entry into a web portal dedicated to US recession risk, long-horizon model interpretation, and portfolio posture shifts.
Subscribers are not paying for vague commentary. They are paying for controlled access to a serious macro decision interface.
Subscriber access includes
- Focused Recession/Watch portal access
- Long-term recession model view
- Aggregated regime score and kill-switch status
- Selected component model perspectives
- Periodic macro updates and interpretation notes
- Bridge into the broader Hedgtrade ecosystem