for self-directed investors • One output: LOW / MODERATE / HIGH risk regime

A recession risk switch for your portfolio — before headlines catch up.

Recession Watch turns a well defined set of leading indicators (yield curve, labor, credit stress, risk appetite) into a simple 0–100 risk score and one regime: LOW, MODERATE, or HIGH.

You get the current regime, what changed this week, and short driver notes that explain why — so you can adjust equity exposure with discipline instead of reacting to noise.

Built for self-directed, long-term investors who want a clear weekly “risk check” (not day-trading signals, not macro jargon).

Transparent rules Weekly email update Regime flip log Downloadable data

Latest Alerts

Most recent changes from the publish feed (timestamped).

Live

BUY SPX500/USD 2025-12-29 03:00 UTC · trend_follow · Conf 73.0%

BUY

REDUCE US10Y 2025-12-28 03:00 UTC · defensive_rotation · Conf 61.0%

REDUCE

HEDGE VIX 2025-12-27 03:00 UTC · crisis_alpha · Conf 52.0%

HEDGE

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Current Recession Risk

Live demo feed loaded from App_Data/publish

Updated: 2025-12-29 03:00 UTC

MODERATE

Regime: Moderate Score 58 / 100 · Up +6 WoW

Flip to HIGH > 65

LowModerateHigh

Latest Alerts Portfolio Playbook

This Week’s Driver Notes

Top contributors to this week’s score change.

Credit spreads widened modestly Delta contribution to score

Yield curve still inverted Delta contribution to score

Risk appetite cooled (equities breadth) Delta contribution to score

Explore the Dashboard

A quick tour of what you’ll use each week: the score, the regime, and the “what changed” notes.

Portfolio Playbook

How to think about exposure by regime — with a live equity preview.

Open Playbook Example

Crisis Alpha (Hedge Overlay) ID: crisis_alpha · CAGR 9.0%

Daily

Defensive Rotation ID: defensive_rotation · CAGR 12.0%

Weekly

Trend Follow (Multi-Asset) ID: trend_follow · CAGR 18.0%

Daily

Alerts Log

Timestamped alerts — when the regime changes or risk rises.

Open Alerts Subscribe

BUY SPX500/USD 2025-12-29 03:00 · trend_follow · Conf 73.0%

BUY

REDUCE US10Y 2025-12-28 03:00 · defensive_rotation · Conf 61.0%

REDUCE

HEDGE VIX 2025-12-27 03:00 · crisis_alpha · Conf 52.0%

HEDGE

Weekly Note

Weekly Summary A short investor-focused summary: what changed + what to watch next week.

Signal Panel

A small set of indicators interpreted the same way every week.

Yield Curve

Neutral

Curve shape + trend: inversion/steepening dynamics filtered for persistence (reduces noise).

Curve signal Persistence filter

Labor Market

Stable

Labor deterioration often shows up late — we focus on inflections and persistence.

Claims Trend

Credit Stress

Contained

Spreads and funding proxies: widening + persistence often precede broader risk-off periods.

Spreads Liquidity

Risk Score Trend (next)

This becomes your score history chart.

Chart Placeholder Risk score (0–100) + regime bands + flip markers (wire from your dataset)

This Week’s Driver Notes

Short, decisive, rules-based.

Credit spreads widened modestly Delta contribution to score

Yield curve still inverted Delta contribution to score

Risk appetite cooled (equities breadth) Delta contribution to score

Investor note: if score crosses 65, regime flips to HIGH — a signal to tighten risk controls and reduce drawdown exposure.

Historical Regime Flips

Every flip is archived with triggers and what happened next (3M/6M/12M outcomes).

Most Recent Flip (demo)

Moderate → High Triggered by credit + labor deterioration.

2024-XX-XX

Show: trigger conditions + what happened next (drawdown / recovery).

Model Hit Rate (demo)

Lead time Median weeks ahead of “headline” recession calls.

~X wks

False positives Regime flips that reverted quickly.

What you’ll see here

Flip dates + trigger snapshot
Post-flip outcomes (3M/6M/12M)
Regime bands on the score chart
Simple, consistent “why” notes

Risk Playbook

Simple portfolio guidance by regime (for long-term investors, not day traders).

LOW

Maintain baseline exposure (risk-on posture)
Rebalance systematically (avoid overtrading)
Watch for early deterioration in drivers

MODERATE

Reduce cyclicals / raise quality tilt
Tighten drawdown limits and hedging plan
Wait for confirmation before adding risk

HIGH

Prioritize capital preservation
Cut leverage / raise cash buffer
Use defined hedges (sized, rules-based)

Pricing

Free keeps you informed weekly. Pro alerts you immediately when the regime flips.

Free

$0 / month

Weekly email update (score + regime)
Driver notes (what changed)
Limited dashboard view

Subscribe Free

Best for: long-term investors who want a weekly “risk check” in one email.

Pro Alerts

$15 / month

Instant regime-flip alerts (email)
Full indicator breakdown + scoring
Flip history + outcomes (3/6/12M)
Export pack (CSV/JSON) + playbook templates

Go Pro

Best for: investors who want instant alerts when the risk regime changes.

Method

Rules-based, transparent scoring.

Leading indicators only (curve, labor, credit, risk appetite)
Normalized scoring (0–100) + persistence filters
Output is one regime: LOW / MODERATE / HIGH

FAQ

Set expectations.

Who is this for? Self-directed investors who want a simple risk regime to guide exposure decisions.

Is this financial advice? No — informational market research. Always make your own decisions.

Where does data come from? Public macro series + your research engine exports to publish-ready files.

How often does it update? As new inputs print (typically weekly); Pro users get immediate alerts on regime flips.