Welcome to the World of Quantitative Analysis & Statistical Modelling

Application of data sciences, statistics, machine learning & artificial intelligence driven investment decisions that help retain this precious alpha factor that is found in what has become a challenging, fast moving global capital market

Algo\River Platform – Modelling for the US & Global Stock Markets

Recession\Watch is a service offered by United\River Capital, a Singapore based private investment firm that invests in the capital markets across the world. The team has developed over the past decade a set of robust statistical models that help support the decision making in the longer timeframe (weekly & monthly) and hence the initiative that was born with this service to offer a subset of that platform in order for SMBs and also money managers such as hedge funds, family offices, HNWIs, and others to understand where they stand in the bigger scheme of things and most importantly how far or close are we from the next upcoming US & Global turndown - and on the flip side recovery cycle.

The algo\river platform’s comprehensive array of statistical models ties itself to an innovative forward-looking only risk management layer that monitors the ever-changing set of uncorrelated micro and macro risk factors of the US & Global capital markets, and is therefore responsible for continuously adjusting its underlying allocation of the entire spectrum of decisions that are being lead by managers and other key decision makers, on both the long and short sides. The Recession\Watch service therefore provides access to the risk management layer of the platform for those who are invested in the long term and want to strategize accordingly.

Turning the manager into the business of hedging, not losing money

With the advent of innovative financial technologies now available in the industry and vast sets of data availability and often found in the public domain - the platform helps the business manager stay one step ahead by understanding the bigger turns in the global capital markets. The benefit to using the Algo\River technology therefore provides a fresh and innovative way to adding value and by yet again keeping it simple. The monitoring of the broader stock market risks ultimately becomes the job - effectively turning the manager into the business of hedging, and not losing money.

Value Creation

• Economies and stock markets are cyclical, know where you stand several months ahead of time using statistics and empirical models, and lead the way by making educated business decisions for your firm


• The challenge with business managers around the world is that the business cycle is often if at all not in sync with the investment cycle. Recession\Watch aims at providing a quantitative view that is in sync not with the fundamentals and the news on TV, but rather with the actual heaps of numbers surrounding us, ever wondered why bad news for the world economy is not always correlated to the stock market's good performance and vice versa ?


• Recession\Watch's technology is available 24/7 via our web portal where the user has access to the current secularity of the US market - and correlated to the rest of the world - and has in addiiton to it acces to a library of additional views that spans from the monthly, and weekly charts but also on the daily frame

KEY FEATURES

Innovative forward looking only algorithms that help forecast statistically adjusted predictions both in short, mid and long term frames. Supported by the calculation of its underlying series of reversal points, and pivots, seasonality projection, momentum with cyclically adjusted RSI and options gamma series and liquidity projection. All maintained in real time.

Statistical Models in the Monthly Timeframe

• Retail Equity Allocation Model - a 10-year return vs allocation measure using correlation
• Consumer Sentiment Model, actual versus the sentiment and a look at the current threshold
• Channel & RSI and 50-10 Crossover - is the longer timeframe (monthly) breaking out of its way
• The 3.5 year cycle & Kondratieff - along with good historical correlation for major troughs and peaks
• Elliott Wave - the EW patterns may be challenging to follow in the smaller timeframes, yet when it comes to the monthly timeframe a clear picture often emerges
• Leading Economic Indicator model (LEI) - a forward looking model thats been proven to be reliable over the years
• Unemployment Model - actual versus current unemployment model

Statistical Models in the Weekly Timeframe

• Liquidity - COT model versys the actual as a forward looking model
• Channel & RSI and 50-10 Crossover - is the mid term timeframe (weekly) breaking out of its way
• YC Spread - need we say more, the actual versus the 2y-10y yield spread
• YC Cycle - the cyclicality of the yield curve and visulation of its troughs and peaks and whats to come next
• Elliot Wave - weekly timeframe analysis of the EW theory and visibility on its most important pattern
• Credit Condition - actual versus the actual credit condition and its correlation

Statistical Models in the Daily Timeframe

• Seasonality - history repeats, comprehensive views of the seasonliaty of the US stock market
• Channel & RSI and 50-10 Crossover - is the mid term timeframe (weekly) breaking out of its way
• VIX Spread - actual versus VIX spread, find your optimal way out, getting in is easy its getting out
• VIX Correlation - actual versus VIX correlation find your optimal way out, getting in is easy its getting out
• Long/Short Exposure Ratio - driven by seasonality in the daily timeframe
• Liquidity - the theory goes that CEF bonds tend to sell off prior to a stock market sell off
• ...and many others including but not limited to daily guidance, seasonality, options projection, pivots, turning points, etc



A Primary Bull/Bear Secularity Signal

• The underlying system signal that officialy declares the market as being either in a bull market, or sadly in a recession.





Supports all US indices (S&P500, NASDAQ 100, DOW JONES, RUSSELL 200), and provides L/S trading bias in real time, as well as fully documented reporting dashboards that are updated daily, weekly and monthly based on their underlying model.

An example of a longer term timeframe, combined with the VIX term structure and cyclical guidance versus its actual:

Real time analytics including but not limited to the order book a measure of market sentiment and other S/L and T/P targets based on the underlying instrument’s wave count

In addition to instrument level analytics and actionable insights it provides, the platform provides short, mid and longer term reporting to understand secularity and where the markets are at in the broader picture