Although many of our models rely heavily on backtesting and statistical methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. Recession/Watch is not a financial advisor and does not provide trade recommendations.
No system can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and the US economy. We use a set of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the statistical bias provides the best odds of a turning point. Along with these mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that will turn everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any seculair and tactical calls no matter how confident one can be in a signal. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.